Bayes' Theorem Recycled Bomber Jacket

Bayes Theorem is a way to weight evidence by the strength of the evidence. Say you have a coin and you think it’s not a perfect 50/50 chance when you flip it. If you test it comes up heads twice, do you assume it has a 100% chance to land heads? No, but your data is saying it’s 100% heads. So you use Bayes Theorem to adjust your prior assumption by the observed data Assume any random coin is 50/50 and adjusting your expectation as you collect more data from additional coin flips. The more data you collect the more confident you can be that your data represents a true deviation from an average coin. It’s very useful for making statistical predictions because it makes a distinction between an Observed Probability and the true underlying probability of something happening by factoring in the likelihood that the observed data could have just occurred randomly. You can never go wrong with a classic bomber jacket, especially when it’s high quality and made of recycled materials. This vers